Polybet: betting on artificial intelligence, climate and cinema questions
Polybet is the Line section for questions outside sport. Its events ask about future facts that can be measured: where a company ranks on an artificial intelligence leaderboard, how much rain falls on a city in a month, what share of critics like a film. Groups are sorted by theme, from science and space to cinema, music and video games.
AI questions and public leaderboards
The artificial intelligence questions point to leaderboards published online, such as Text Arena, Code Arena WebDev and LiveBench, and to usage shares measured by OpenRouter. On a question such as «Company has best AI model end of October», each company has its own Yes and No option.
Arena, formerly LMArena and Chatbot Arena, ranks models through blind comparison: a user sends one prompt to two anonymous models, votes for the better answer, and only then sees which models replied.
Climate: millimetres and degrees
Rain questions in the Polybet climate group cover a whole month in London, New York, Seoul or Hong Kong, with options in millimetre ranges. Rainfall is measured in millimetres of height, the same as litres per square metre, so a 45 to 60 millimetre range means 45 to 60 litres on every square metre.
Global temperature questions include the rank of 2026 among the hottest years on record. For scale, the World Meteorological Organization found that the 2025 global average surface temperature was 1.44 °C (±0.13 °C) above the 1850 to 1900 average, and that 2023, 2024 and 2025 are the three warmest years in all eight datasets it analysed.
Movies and video games
The film questions in the Movies group cover opening-weekend box office, weekly Netflix top lists and Rotten Tomatoes scores, with thresholds such as «20 and more» or «40 and more». The Tomatometer is the percentage of professional critic reviews that are positive. Video games have their own group for The Game Awards, an annual ceremony founded in 2014; the 2026 edition is listed for 10 December.
Polybet sits in the Line's section list alongside the other pre-event markets. Betting on a question requires a sign-up on the site, with an account in Algerian dinars (DZD).